Link to Article: Basic Economics for Financial Journalists and Other Dummies

Dan Mitchell wrote a very telling article that describes how GDP is depicted.  Dan uses a simple situation involving a family household, making $50,000 a year, to show the misguided method used to share GDP values.  I found this article to be informative and interesting, so I thought you might too.

Basic Economics for Financial Journalists and Other Dummies

United States Financial and Dollar Outlook

A recent UN report is giving the U.S. two-to-three years to make significant reductions in debt, and to increase the value of the dollar against other currencies, or face collapse of the U.S. dollar.  The UN report is not saying that such a collapse is guaranteed but states that the conditions would be even more favorable if the U.S. can not accomplish those two things.  This of course come as no surprise.  The United States has been spending money and increasing debt quickly, eventually that type of behavior will catch up with the U.S.  The part that should be the most alarming to everyone is that the UN has come out publicly about the collapse of the United States dollar.

Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

China has continually discussed removing the U.S. dollar as the world currency with a new currency or different currency, like their own.  China has reached trade agreements with several countries were the U.S. dollar plays NO role.  The countries are instead trading with China's currency.  This shows the lack of trust in our countries future and leaders.  This could have horrible effects to the U.S. financially.  If we were to lose our place as the world's reserve currency the U.S. dollar would surely began to devalue very quickly.  As the dollar devalued inflation would rise, the economy would weaken, and the likelihood of an economic collapse or depression would be very high.  The fact that the United States is the world's reserve currency has kept the economy, and the country afloat.  Being the world currency creates demand for our dollar, and gives other countries the incentive to invest in our countries debt.

I've thought for awhile that may have some time yet to get the house in order, so to speak, but I started thinking about something very profound recently.  Politicians and governments typically do not start to discuss and tackle serious issues until they are forced to.  This mentality got me thinking and I believe the politicians and the governments of the world are finally talking about debt because the collapse is closer than expected.  There are really only a two key things keeping the US afloat:

1. Foreign investment
2. Being the world's reserve currency

Both of these items are tied together, without one another the whole thing falls apart.  Foreign investors continue to invest in order to prop our economy, which in turn keeps the U.S. dollar more valuable, which keeps currency exchange rates predictable.

It is the fact that the U.S. economy and dollar is so unstable that has pushed numerous countries to question whether the United States dollar should be the reserve currency.  With many organizations and countries pushing to use other currency sources (new or different) for trade, the United States may become a less important player in international trade transactions.  This in turn could eliminate the "requirement" for other countries to invest in the U.S.  If the United States can start reducing the national debt quickly and increase the value of the dollar then this may be avoided, but if the United States continues down the same path it has been on we will surely see some very difficult times ahead.

The below paragraph is a simplified version of how money is exchanged between countries:

If the U.S. is given a $2 million (USD) loan from China, China has to spend $12.96 million (CNY) in order to fulfill that loan.  If the U.S. dollar's value increases, then China will receive a larger sum of their own currency back when we pay off the $2 million (USD) loan.  On the contrary, if the U.S. dollar's value decreases then when we pay back our $2 million (USD) loan, China will be receiving less money than they had gave us in the first place, thus losing money.  This is because of how currency exchange rates work.  In order for China to give us $2 million (USD) they have to exchange their own currency into United State dollars (USD).

Are You Willing To Sacrifice For Survival

The Federal Government, all the way down to local townships are facing severe financial shortfalls.  The country as a whole suffers from having higher expenditures than income.  This problem stems from an over bearing government, an economy that is no longer growing, and citizens who have become accustomed to receiving services (like these services are rights).  If we are to have any hope of bouncing back from this crippling debt crisis we must be willing to make budget cuts across the board and to sacrifice some of our 'free' luxuries.

When I mention making budget cuts across the board I mean just that.  We have to make cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, welfare, military, and much much more.  Nothing can be safe, every aspect of government needs a close examination to determine whether we can make funding reductions.  The other thing that comes with funding cuts is self-responsibility.  No longer can we expect the 'government' to provide, we must go back to our roots and realize that we must provide for ourselves.  It is the false belief that "the government should do it" that is instilled in so many people's minds.  The government should do very little, and most importantly the government should have as little control over our lives as possible.

There have been many so called 'plans' to reduce the debt, but none of them have been as drastic or promising as the plan submitted by Senator Rand Paul.  Rand Paul's plan reduces $500 billion from the federal government's budget in one year.  This is a major step in the right direction, and I hope that all of you contact your Senators in support of this budget plan.

We as a nation must realize that the hard times are not over, and that times will get tougher before they get better.  We must also realize that relying on the government for social safe nets is no longer a possibility, many of these safe nets are financially crippling our country.

What The Debt Ceiling Is and What It Means

The United States has a national debt ceiling, which is the maximum amount of debt that the federal government can have.  When the government reaches the debt ceiling it is no longer allowed to incur any further debt, this results in the government shutting down any non-critical operations.  This shutdown continues until the debt ceiling is raised, or until a portion of the debt is paid off.

The new congress that takes office in January faces a difficult task, do they raise the debt ceiling and continue bankrupting our country or do they not raise the debt ceiling and risk halting government operations.  Either way the new congress will get grief and neither of the two options are good for this country, so it is essentially a no win situation, but by raising the debt ceiling they could ease into a spending reduction,  If they choose to not raise the debt ceiling our country will be forced to control our spending, which is good, but in a more abrupt manner.  On the other hand, if you continue to allow the government to spend more and more money, by increasing the debt ceiling, will you ever be able to put this out of control spending to a stop?

The new congress should be completely up front with the American people.  Tell them that we are looking at a complete economical collapse if we don't do something about our spending and increasing debt quickly.  Inform the American people that things will get worst before they can get better, but in order to start working towards a better tomorrow major cuts must be made.  Many of these cuts will effect our daily lives because entitlement programs like Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security are not immune to some sort of cutbacks.  The American people MUST realize that if we continue going down our current path we will end up like the Soviet Union, collapsed and poor.

No matter what the new congress does regarding the debt ceiling, Americans must realize that they have to make concessions and stop relying on the government if the United States hopes to survive.  None of the choices we have are good ones, but if we all work together our country can achieve great things.

What do you think congress should do, raise or not raise the debt ceiling?

What Role Should the Constitution Play In Our Government

I find it both interesting and sad that we have allowed our country to become the monster that it is today.  It is sad because most citizens do not have a good understanding of the Constitution and the role it is to play in all government decisions.  It is interesting because of the strong beliefs and convictions people have about government, when their knowledge of the Constitution seems so limited.

The Constitution is intended to be followed and used in EVERY decision that is made in government, whether it is at the city level, state level, or federal level.  As a citizen and/or politician, any decisions and votes need to be based on Constitutionality, not how something makes you feel.  It is very important to separate emotions from fact.

For example, in most religions there are a set of rules that you are to follow.  Believers (followers) are not allowed to pick and choose what rules they wish to obey, based on how they might feel at that moment.  Instead, these rules are put in place so that you live your life in a particular way, that they may shape you.  This, is exactly how the Constitution and Bill of Rights need to be treated.

I am no Constitutional scholar, but I do have a basic understanding of our Constitution, Bill of Rights, and our nations history.  In order to gain knowledge in all of these fields I continue to learn about all three of these fields.  On this blog I intend to discuss the role of the Constitution, Bill of Rights, and why a large and powerful government is not in our best interest.

"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." --Thomas Jefferson to Charles Yancey, 1816. ME 14:384
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